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This post (https://bbs.archlinux.org/viewtopic.php?id=133583) seems to have resolved itself.
Updated the system today to kernel 3.2.8-1 and it now works again.
Between 16 Jan and now I have been fixed on kernel 3.1.6 (with linux and nvidia packages being ignored for updates) as any later kernels appeared to show the same boot problem.
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