The not so distance future of computing.

jumico · 2009-09-28 07:26:34

These are just some things in the future I feel like writing about for whatever reason. Some is stuff that will happen others are just my hopes.
What do you look forward to in the future?
Also let me know if some of my points are completely off.

Hardware
Possessor- Cpus are continually changing. Smaller processor architectures are always cool. 32 nm and 22nm. One thing i find interesting coming up is having the cpu and gpu on the same die.
Motherboard- pretty much eliminating the front side bus is kinda cool.
sata- sata 3 is coming out but it wont be useful for a while.
usb 3.0- Not a big deal just kinda cool
bluetooth 3 and wireless usb3: Same thing not a big deal to me but kinda cool
ssds- continually getting cheaper and better which is awesome.
ram and harddrives- Not really sure but not much seems to change. If I understand correctly ram is already as fast as it is usable and hard drives just get bigger.
mini-itx- I think it's cool that this form factor is getting more popular. I just like the size.
gpus- Intel has their gpgpu coming out but I'm not sure how good that will be. other than that I don't know much other than gpus will begin supporting directx 11.
Screens-led/oled technology seems to be advancing but im not sure what this means. Less energy usage? Or do they actually provide better graphics?
graphics in general- I'm not really sure. I know we can make screens larger but can we actually improve over 1080p in terms of clarity and what not?
netbooks- They will get faster with new atom processors and will get better at playing hd video like some already have.
arm-perhaps more arm netbooks
digital movie cameras- will continue to get better but still not as good as film
display port- I feel like this has no chance but hopefully it will catch on.
wii-wii hd maybe in 2011

software
enlightenment- according to their roadmap a final release would be ready by christmas.
kde- I don't use it but I really like kde. I think it has to do with how all their projects seem to be progressing nicely. I feel like the project is just handled well and the individual applications are turning out really nice.
gnome-gnome 3 will be released and i'm not sure what that entails. Different look and feel?
kernel-will continue as always. I'm not sure about anything special happening.
lxde- i believe lubuntu is in the works
windows7-i have no idea what this will change if much at all.
id tech 4- hopefully will be released as opensource soon. I have no idea when.
android/maemo- It would be cool to see these on more and more phones as we currently are.
netop os's- we've seen a few. Moblin will begin shipping on some dells and we will see how well it succeeds.
blender- blender 2.5 will come out which is a major release with many changes. Blenders third open movie will come out.
urban terror-i don't play really but urban terror 4.2 will hopefully be released soon.
python- Google's unladen swallow project will hopefully meet their goal and speed up python by 5 times its current speed. I hope for more projects to move to python 3. pyside will end up better than pyqt.
perl6-will never be released
chakra-Will reach a 1.0 release and be awesome.
healthcare- Some type of awesome opensource electronic healthcare softwae is implemented.
Google- Googleos will come out
steam-hopefully a Linux version will be released.
Theora/Thusnelda- Hopefully this format will become popular with hd video
html5 video tag- This will be used much more hopefully with theora.
ps3-will support 3d but only with new tvs. also will introduce new motion controller
xbox-project natal. Not sure about this yet.
cloud- I don't think much will change too soon.
opengl- Hopefully will make serious improvements and quick development.
othersoftware- Theres a lot of software that I hope continues to progress nicely and won't die like many other projects.
dyne:bolic- will make another release.

Stuff
net neutrality-hopefully the fcc will pass some sort of regulation that will somehow get ignored.
wifi- I would just like to hope more cities implement city wide wifi
oracle- they will get EU approval and make sun software available for Linux to use.
sco- hopefully one day they will finally quit.
Headfirst programming- This book will come out and be awesome

Last edited by jumico (2009-09-28 08:05:44)

zowki · 2009-09-28 09:37:24

The total world computing power of today would be equivalent to a $1000 computer of 2040 (according to Moore's law).

Army · 2009-09-28 09:43:41

Until quantum computing doesn't work, Moore's law can't continue go be realistic

ammon · 2009-09-28 10:11:34

I belive we need more efficent software and hardware. Cheap, re-usable, modular electronics. And Arch-like OS for that.

Runiq · 2009-09-28 10:21:22

Army wrote:

Until quantum computing doesn't work, Moore's law can't continue go be realistic

Lookie here.

Edit: Moore's Law can't continue much further even with quantum computing.

Last edited by Runiq (2009-09-28 10:22:12)

Zariel · 2009-09-28 10:21:58

I cant wait for tegra to hit the deck, and for nvidias next gen of GPU's.

keenerd · 2009-09-28 11:55:09

So don't go beyond three years?

Software:
Viewpoints finishes their 20k line OS.

Hardware:
Chuck Moore's parallel and lightweight chips become commonly available.

Services:
Cellular service (or nation wide wimax) becomes a commodity, priced close to the actual expense (not 100x profit margins). An affordable dumb pipe, on par with any other broadband.

Ah, who am I kidding. Everyone using Forth is more likely than reasonable cell providers.

ZankerH · 2009-09-28 12:31:21

Runiq wrote:

Army wrote:
Until quantum computing doesn't work, Moore's law can't continue go be realistic
Lookie here.
Edit: Moore's Law can't continue much further even with quantum computing.

Moore's Law relies on regular paradigm breaks that transcend the limitations of hardware. That's why we went from mechanical computers to vacuum tubes to integrated circuits (yes, I know that's a gross oversimplification, but can't be bothered writing a novel on the subject in a forum post). The technological progress follows an exponential trend since man first invented fire, and it's not going to stop because we hit the theoretical limit of the processing power of integrated circuits.

Last edited by ZankerH (2009-09-28 12:31:56)

Runiq · 2009-09-28 12:38:46

ZankerH wrote:

Moore's Law relies on regular paradigm breaks that transcend the limitations of hardware. That's why we went from mechanical computers to vacuum tubes to integrated circuits (yes, I know that's a gross oversimplification, but can't be bothered writing a novel on the subject in a forum post). The technological progress follows an exponential trend since man first invented fire, and it's not going to stop because we hit the theoretical limit of the processing power of integrated circuits.

Sure, but I still think there's some kind of upper limit to its applicability, even if you only apply it to computing power.

Edit: D'oh! It only applies to computing power by definition. Okay, I got pwned.

Last edited by Runiq (2009-09-28 12:40:08)

ZankerH · 2009-09-28 12:40:56

Runiq wrote:

Sure, but I still think there's some kind of upper limit to its applicability, even if you only apply it to computing power.

The upper level is transforming all the matter in the universe into nanoscale computers that operate somewhere on the subatomic level, and uploading our consciousnesses on them.

Last edited by ZankerH (2009-09-28 16:09:53)

ZankerH · 2009-09-28 12:43:57

Runiq wrote:

Edit: D'oh! It only applies to computing power by definition. Okay, I got pwned.

Moore's Law may only apply to processing power, but the same exponential trend can be observed in any area of technology, partially due to advances in computing - with the advances in genetic algorithms, they can easily be applied to evolve anything, and after that it's only a matter of having computers fast enough to do it in a decent amount of time, and having the facilities to manufacture and support the results.

EDIT: OK, now we got from the immediate future in hardware and Free Software to Singularitarianism. My apologies for derailing the thread.

Last edited by ZankerH (2009-09-28 12:49:29)

jumico · 2009-09-28 17:01:23

ZankerH wrote:

Runiq wrote:
Edit: D'oh! It only applies to computing power by definition. Okay, I got pwned.
Moore's Law may only apply to processing power, but the same exponential trend can be observed in any area of technology, partially due to advances in computing

I believe Moore's law actually only applies to transistor count doubling every two years or so. Also doubling transistors doesn't actually double the processing power. There has been times before when people thought Moore's law wouldn't last much longer but somehow it found a way. If it does end they will just do something new. They could make chips bigger or be able to run the current transistors at higher power. I'm not sure but i think I read that there are so many so close together that it creates too much heat if you run them too hard.

Ranguvar · 2009-09-28 21:15:08

Rassena (code-name) will be released and will pwn all other desktop OSes.

Last edited by Ranguvar (2009-09-28 21:16:08)

lilsirecho · 2009-09-28 21:31:27

Perhaps the demise of the present internet in a few short years.

International discord in attempts to rebuild same...........Witness the discord on global warming and nuclear proliferation for an example of international co-op!

All advances in computer software and hardware then may be moot.........

Acecero · 2009-09-28 22:23:08

full use of IPv6... jk.

jumico · 2009-09-29 04:26:18

Wireless charging.
http://gizmodo.com/5369472/hands+on-wit … s#comments

Berticus · 2009-09-29 08:06:12

Screens - Pixel Qi's 3qi by the end of this year. Hopefully netbooks will pick this up. Maybe even a netbook/tablet hybrid using pineview + ion + 3qi sometime next year? Would be great if the battery life of that netbook/tablet hybrid could manage ~10h.

Personally, I don't see a lot happening with the ARM processor. Too many people "require" Windows. Microsoft has stated at this time, they can't see themselves picking up the architecture.

smartboyathome · 2009-09-29 15:10:35

The first stable version of GNU/Hurd will finally be released in 2034, 50 years after it was started.

bernarcher · 2009-09-29 19:42:11

smartboyathome wrote:

The first stable version of GNU/Hurd will finally be released in 2034, 50 years after it was started.

Do you really think that early.
I'd rather wait for a GNU/Hurd alike ready for some quantum computer, (If I ever do live that long.)

Isengrin · 2009-09-29 21:03:49

Ubuntu time comes to an end with 85.04 Final Fish.

Last edited by Isengrin (2009-09-29 21:04:26)

skottish · 2009-09-29 21:07:11

In 2063, Microsoft will release Windows 7 service pack 1. It will be an emergency fix for a security vulnerability discovered in Windows for Workgroups 3.1.

Runiq · 2009-09-29 21:12:46

skottish wrote:

In 2063, Microsoft will release Windows 7 service pack 1. It will be an emergency fix for a security vulnerability discovered in Windows for Workgroups 3.1.

Haha, now you're just being ridiculous. Security vulnerability? In Windows 7? Come on!

Stefan Husmann · 2009-09-29 21:37:29

in 2025 a smal group of enthusiasts will finish an operating system which abandons the concept of an unixoide system in favour of an emacs-ish system. The hardware detection will be made by some user space init scripts written in emacs lisp. The desktop will consist of some non-overlapping windows, but they desktop will be renamed to "frame" and the windows to "buffers", which is considered a much more intuitive naming scheme. Commands can be written anywhwre and are executetd by an easys to remember C-x C-e key combination. Everyone will like that new approach and the system will be named "Buffers 3.1", in rememberance of a small neat OS they used in their childhood.

skottish · 2009-09-29 21:43:36

Stefan Husmann wrote:

in 2025 a smal group of enthusiasts will finish an operating system which abandons the concept of an unixoide system in favour of an emacs-ish system. The hardware detection will be made by some user space init scripts written in emacs lisp. The desktop will consist of some non-overlapping windows, but they desktop will be renamed to "frame" and the windows to "buffers", which is considered a much more intuitive naming scheme. Commands can be written anywhwre and are executetd by an easys to remember C-x C-e key combination. Everyone will like that new approach and the system will be named "Buffers 3.1", in rememberance of a small neat OS they used in their childhood.

Wait a second! Can't you just fork emacs today, rename it Buffers, and include a usable text editor like vim and call it done by next week?

*** Run away! Run away! ***

Stefan Husmann · 2009-09-29 22:05:33

Is vi usable? It is already there!

Arch Linux

#1 2009-09-28 07:26:34

The not so distance future of computing.

#2 2009-09-28 09:37:24

Re: The not so distance future of computing.

#3 2009-09-28 09:43:41

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#4 2009-09-28 10:11:34

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#5 2009-09-28 10:21:22

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#6 2009-09-28 10:21:58

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