Desktop Operating System Musings

keiichi · 2009-11-05 01:50:55

The desktop operating system scene is getting really interesting nowadays. I'm keeping both of my eyes on Haiku as it looks like something that may permanently draw me from Linux. I'm interested in getting Windows 7 on my computer so that I can keep enjoy Microsoft's latest offering. Desktop Linux is getting a lot of complaints from users saying Xorg and init and schedulers and more needs to be overhauled while developers are saying that they are unfounded claims. In this area I'm half expecting a user of Arch Linux or another DIY distribution to get some work done in this area if those claims have anything to them. The most interesting things for me are Haiku and Linux, with Windows 7 merely being what Vista should have been from the get-go. What do you guys think? Might the situation change in a few years? How?

Ranguvar · 2009-11-05 03:20:53

I expect distros backed by big business to start up and take over the end-user market, using free price at first with perhaps paid support and maybe later fees. Mac will continue to grow while Windows falls, and there will be a sudden influx of games running on Mac and GNU/Linux thanks to the fact that they both use OpenGL. One business-backed distro will rise to stardom especially, and unfortunately, proprietary software on GNU/Linux will become both more common and increasingly only available natively for that one distro. Other distros will have to implement hacks to get that software to work, and many GNU/Linux power users will be pissed off. The mega-distro will "sponsor" free software projects with developers and money to influence their direction, avoiding outright forking so as to maintain good will. They will encourage permissive licensing, and may explore making that software proprietary for extra features down the line.

Eventually, as MS buckles under the combined pressure of Mac and GNU/Linux (especially due to Wine and Darwine reaching near-100% completeness of the Windows API), they will become a company focusing solely on consulting and office software, for those two platforms. The mega-distro will overwhelm Mac, and it will be Mac vs. Windows all over again (well, not THAT bad) with GNU/Linux being the majority and Mac being the elitist subsection. However, Mac will have more market share vs. GNU/Linux compared to how it is vs. Windows now, due to increased compatibility between the two. Smaller distros will be very "cramped", and focus more on niche areas (stuff like Mythbuntu is now), pro users, and Free Software advocacy. Many in these camps (besides the Free Software one) will switch to Mac. The mega-distro will aggressively pursue the cloud as long as it is a viable road -- it would certainly make their plan easier.

Basically, the mega-distro will become the next Windows, complete with smiley-face stickers on their employees' T-shirts. All will applaud, and those who barely knew open source will rejoice. Stallman & co. will get a "We told you so", and the GNU fans will have lost. Linus won't care.

As for Haiku and *BSD? They'll just continue. Not much of anything interesting there. (Not that they aren't interesting, just my prediction that they won't rise or fall in popularity)

My money's on Google being the super-distro company, but Canonical has a shot too (just not while Shuttleworth has an influence on them, he's too moral).

That was just a real quick pouring of my mind's contents onto the Internet, and should not be taken as an actual analysis (well, more than a very amateurish, quick-shot one) ;P I blame your Zetsubou avatar for my depressing diagnosis

Last edited by Ranguvar (2009-11-05 20:07:35)

sand_man · 2009-11-05 05:49:48

Ranguvar forgot to mention that he is a seer.

Isengrin · 2009-11-05 05:56:25

sand_man wrote:

Ranguvar forgot to mention that he is a seer. ;)

He is a demon!

Almost made me cry. I don't want all of that to happen, but somehow it has sense. u__u

pseudonomous · 2009-11-05 06:52:24

Eh ... I predict that the if anything major changes in the computing world it will be because the desktop/laptop as we know it dies off ... I mean with the growth of smartphones / netbooks / so called "cloud computing" I think it's plausilbe ... but in the next ... let's say 5 years Microsoft will continue to dominate the desktop/laprtop, Apple will conitnue to go after the higher end consumer market (which may erode at the edges of Microsoft's marketshare, but certainly but will probably never surpass %10 in the US, and likely never be real significant outside the US) and linux will move along in the background. Dell and specialty retailers will probably continue to sell some linux-based offerings, a couple other manufactures may give it a shot every now and then, but they'll give up after the first product line does lousy. *BSD will continue to lag behind linux in terms of it's viability as a desktop OS, but will continue to be a solid server OS, and there will be less than five security holes found in subsequent releases of OpenBSD. Maybe Haiku will put out a non-beta release, but all it'll run will be an old firefox port, basic system utilities, and BeOS software that will be over a decade old. People will bitch and moan about Xorg and X11 and ALSA and the sound server of the year, but we'll still keep using them because they mostly work, right NOW, and nothing else even comes close (for the F/OSS world).

I'd love to be wrong and see something more intersting happen, but it doesn't seem likely.

mythus · 2009-11-05 12:48:10

I'd love to be wrong and see something more intersting happen, but it doesn't seem likely.

To say that is to forget the whole last decade of linux and desktop innovation. Sure, the basic 'desktop' metaphor has remained, but everything has improved by leaps and bounds.

It is highly probable that within the next 10 years the Chrome OS will cause an upsurge in linux markability. This is something that will cause more proprietary companies to take notice, releasing games and programs for the Chrome OS; causing headaches for the F/OSS world only for a short term until they manage to make oss and free variants of the same programs. Most people prefer free over cost which will cause the proprietary software to suffer some, perhaps enough to prevent even more such software from making it into the linux world.

It is highly probable that GNOME 3.0 will be a repeat of the KDE 4.0 debacle. However by GNOME 3.2, GNOME will have their strong following. THose who do not like the GNOME 3 series will either fork GNOME or move on to other WM's/DE's, like XFCE. XFCE will become the new GNOME 2, even bearing much of it's bloat, but surprissingly more customizable and perhaps faster than GNOME 2 was. KDE 5 will start to be considered at this time, just when everyone is starting to get used to KDE 4. E18 will be on somebody's drawing board.

It is highly probable that Windows 8 will be released within 5 years of Windows 7. It will do as well as Windows Vista, causing Windows 9 to have to be released within 1 to 3 years, which is really just Windows 8.2.

Haiku and like O/S's will have finally reached a stable release. They will gain a following but might not get as large as linux.

BSD will reach where linux is now in terms of hardware support but will continue to prove it's robust nature and its stability.

Running out of animals, Apple will release Machintosh Y.

Because of Microsoft being preinstalled on a majority of computers, despite their failing o/s's, Microsoft will still hold a large majority of the market share. However this market share may be as low as 75%.

Some crazy nut will finally invent something better than the desktop, but everyone so resistant to change causes it to never become popular.

Trent · 2009-11-05 18:09:23

mythus wrote:

Running out of animals, Apple will release Machintosh Y.

Change is slow -- really, really, really slow, even in our technologically accelerated age. Sometimes we, as Linux users who are used to changes at every new version, forget that. I don't think Windows will be really gone for the next 40 years.

In any case, predicting the future isn't as interesting as watching it happen.

keiichi · 2009-11-05 19:34:25

Trent wrote:

mythus wrote:
Running out of animals, Apple will release Machintosh Y.
Change is slow -- really, really, really slow, even in our technologically accelerated age. Sometimes we, as Linux users who are used to changes at every new version, forget that. I don't think Windows will be really gone for the next 40 years.
In any case, predicting the future isn't as interesting as watching it happen.

Win, this is the least depressing response yet. Let's watch a fun future happen.

Ranguvar · 2009-11-05 20:09:40

keiichi wrote:

Trent wrote:
mythus wrote:
Running out of animals, Apple will release Machintosh Y.
Change is slow -- really, really, really slow, even in our technologically accelerated age. Sometimes we, as Linux users who are used to changes at every new version, forget that. I don't think Windows will be really gone for the next 40 years.
In any case, predicting the future isn't as interesting as watching it happen.
Win, this is the least depressing response yet. Let's watch a fun future happen.

What is this madness!? You do know the character in your avatar, don't you? Be more Zetsubou-like, now!

Obi-Lan · 2009-11-05 21:26:45

Considering in aspect of business software Windows isn't going away for a long time. In corporate world only real option for Windows is Mac because part of the corporate software have been ported for Mac (Office, VPN clients etc). Though I don't consider Mac integration to Windows network so smooth, even less with newer Windows software where everything has more or less changed, like Windows 7 by default demands all file share traffic to be encrypted etc. But Apple will continnue to gain more market, its like a cult.

But cloud computing may change things in future mostly because it also introduces standards so that these software can be run on different platforms.

iphitus · 2009-11-05 21:33:50

Change is remarkably fast in Linux distros. Open source evolves fast. Compare Linux of 2002 to Windows of 2002 and Windows smoked linux in many basic areas. In that time, Linux distros have caught up, and continue to catch up.

Ranguvar · 2009-11-05 23:49:56

Obi-Lan wrote:

But cloud computing may change things in future mostly because it also introduces standards so that these software can be run on different platforms.

And Wine, don't forget Wine -- since companies can (and do) buy software like CrossOver, which is basically supported Wine, that way they can have Windows apps working assured on other OSen.

Windows's greatest asset by FAR is its massive software base, and "cloud computing" and Wine are both huge threats to that.

miromanyth · 2009-11-06 02:24:25

Ranguvar wrote:

Obi-Lan wrote:
But cloud computing may change things in future mostly because it also introduces standards so that these software can be run on different platforms.
And Wine, don't forget Wine -- since companies can (and do) buy software like CrossOver, which is basically supported Wine, that way they can have Windows apps working assured on other OSen.
Windows's greatest asset by FAR is its massive software base, and "cloud computing" and Wine are both huge threats to that.

While cloud computing is a possibility I don't think Microsoft considers it a threat so much as a new territory to conquer. People know Internet Explorer. It's that blue e that makes the internet "go" on there desktop. There's a lot of power in simple repetitious exposure. People use what is most readily available and Microsoft IS a computer to most people.
Linux will become a bit more streamlined, while still easily breakable, so we have something to nerd out on

Really, whatever Google does will be very interesting. They're one of the very very few behemoth companies like Microsoft, Apple, etc that has become a household name. People "know" google, but they still don't "know" Ubuntu or Canonical or whatever.

Last edited by miromanyth (2009-11-06 02:24:37)

Ranguvar · 2009-11-06 02:53:24

miromanyth wrote:

Ranguvar wrote:
Obi-Lan wrote:
But cloud computing may change things in future mostly because it also introduces standards so that these software can be run on different platforms.
And Wine, don't forget Wine -- since companies can (and do) buy software like CrossOver, which is basically supported Wine, that way they can have Windows apps working assured on other OSen.
Windows's greatest asset by FAR is its massive software base, and "cloud computing" and Wine are both huge threats to that.
While cloud computing is a possibility I don't think Microsoft considers it a threat so much as a new territory to conquer. People know Internet Explorer. It's that blue e that makes the internet "go" on there desktop. There's a lot of power in simple repetitious exposure. People use what is most readily available and Microsoft IS a computer to most people.

I think Microsoft is way too late to the cloud-computing party to be anything big there, they're just crossing their fingers now and hoping the cloud is a bubble which will soon burst (it may be so). It's just too massive to manuever with any rapidity any more. IE is still the dominant browser, but it's been solidly proven that there's no money to be made in web browsers themselves, and MS does next to nothing on the Internet side of things. Plus, we're moving into a time where more and more people are actually aware of the programs on their PC, and many businesses are getting Firefox for example.

It's pretty interesting at my high school, the sysadmins (a bunch of Slackware geeks, they rock) have had Firefox on all the PCs since a few years ago. I can see more people starting to use Firefox, and you can make a pretty reliable snap-decision on how knowledgeable a person is about computers by just glancing at their screen and looking for a blue e or a red fox
I'd say about 35% of the kids at my 10-12 high school click on Firefox, and 20% of the teachers. Last year was maybe 60% of that.

keiichi · 2009-11-06 04:14:58

Ranguvar wrote:

keiichi wrote:
Trent wrote:
Change is slow -- really, really, really slow, even in our technologically accelerated age. Sometimes we, as Linux users who are used to changes at every new version, forget that. I don't think Windows will be really gone for the next 40 years.
In any case, predicting the future isn't as interesting as watching it happen.
Win, this is the least depressing response yet. Let's watch a fun future happen.
What is this madness!? You do know the character in your avatar, don't you? Be more Zetsubou-like, now!

No, I like to be happy. Life has me despairing too much already.

Llama · 2009-11-06 10:29:26

keiichi wrote:

I'm keeping both of my eyes on Haiku as it looks like something that may permanently draw me from Linux.

You sound like Haiku is under development. Is it really so?

Obi-Lan · 2009-11-06 11:22:28

Ranguvar wrote:

Obi-Lan wrote:
But cloud computing may change things in future mostly because it also introduces standards so that these software can be run on different platforms.
And Wine, don't forget Wine -- since companies can (and do) buy software like CrossOver, which is basically supported Wine, that way they can have Windows apps working assured on other OSen.
Windows's greatest asset by FAR is its massive software base, and "cloud computing" and Wine are both huge threats to that.

Wine and Crossover can only run most common software and even those will have performance, feature and stability issues. For example crossover office supports Office 2007 on bronze level and MS doesn't sell older ones anymore. What is the benefit for average user who does most of his work on office to switch on linux and run Office over crossover where it wont run as well as on Windows platform and may be missing features? Office is just and example, situation would propably be worse on some other software. So as a system administrator I can't think of giving linux desktop for example for 50 users and start solving all problems what that could cause vs relatively small investment on 50 windows licences.

Ranguvar · 2009-11-06 12:17:19

Obi-Lan wrote:

Ranguvar wrote:
Obi-Lan wrote:
But cloud computing may change things in future mostly because it also introduces standards so that these software can be run on different platforms.
And Wine, don't forget Wine -- since companies can (and do) buy software like CrossOver, which is basically supported Wine, that way they can have Windows apps working assured on other OSen.
Windows's greatest asset by FAR is its massive software base, and "cloud computing" and Wine are both huge threats to that.
Wine and Crossover can only run most common software and even those will have performance, feature and stability issues. For example crossover office supports Office 2007 on bronze level and MS doesn't sell older ones anymore. What is the benefit for average user who does most of his work on office to switch on linux and run Office over crossover where it wont run as well as on Windows platform and may be missing features? Office is just and example, situation would propably be worse on some other software. So as a system administrator I can't think of giving linux desktop for example for 50 users and start solving all problems what that could cause vs relatively small investment on 50 windows licences.

I didn't say it was good for every business now And Office is an example of something that does _not_ work well, plus, there's an alternative that can usually work fine, OpenOffice.

I know some companies are using CrossOver, though. See for example: http://www.winehq.org/wwn/358#A%20Wine% … ss%20Story

And you say "will have... issues" like it's a certainty

Last edited by Ranguvar (2009-11-06 12:19:15)

Eradest · 2009-11-06 19:18:16

I think it's possible that some day, the only thing running on a computer will be a web browser and a server. "Cloud Computing" doesn't necessarily have to be on a "cloud", if you think of the Opera-Unite approach, you just could be running applications on your own pc with the browser providing the interface. There might be a new HTML standard going even more in the "application-like" direction and leaving the static design behind.
The cool thing would be the portability, you just need a browser and a server - but I suppose then there's just also gonna evolve a number of different platforms in terms of standards or so.

Ranguvar · 2009-11-06 20:22:49

Eradest wrote:

I think it's possible that some day, the only thing running on a computer will be a web browser and a server. "Cloud Computing" doesn't necessarily have to be on a "cloud", if you think of the Opera-Unite approach, you just could be running applications on your own pc with the browser providing the interface. There might be a new HTML standard going even more in the "application-like" direction and leaving the static design behind.
The cool thing would be the portability, you just need a browser and a server - but I suppose then there's just also gonna evolve a number of different platforms in terms of standards or so.

Maybe. I hope this doesn't happen, because it's a complete and utter rape of the Unix philosophy

You want web apps on the desktop, fine, then make a proper local JavaScript interpreter/compiler/JIT-funky-thingy (libwebkit is an example of a nice local library-based offering), etc., and basically build the browser into the OS like it should have been done from the start.

It didn't go this way because this way is harder at first, but I want to be able to run web apps like any other app -- and NOT a cutesy icon masking a full-blown browser. That, and they should have simply made local apps more web-interfacing rather than doing the whole damn thing over the Internet, but that ship has sailed.

keiichi · 2009-11-07 00:32:48

Llama wrote:

keiichi wrote:
I'm keeping both of my eyes on Haiku as it looks like something that may permanently draw me from Linux.
You sound like Haiku is under development. Is it really so?

It is so.

Lexion · 2009-11-09 13:30:14

apple will continue to use cats for it's versions, microsoft will continuously change versioning systems, and Linux will stay at 1-1.5% market share (desktop consumers only). Then in ten years, the doctor will come to earth and save us, delivering linux to the top.

keiichi · 2009-11-15 19:35:09

Lexion wrote:

apple will continue to use cats for it's versions, microsoft will continuously change versioning systems, and Linux will stay at 1-1.5% market share (desktop consumers only). Then in ten years, the doctor will come to earth and save us, delivering linux to the top.

Lolwut? Your post makes no sense to me so I am going to take it as an attempt at humour which I applaud you for yet; son I am dissapoint.

Ranguvar · 2009-11-15 22:47:05

keiichi wrote:

Lexion wrote:
apple will continue to use cats for it's versions, microsoft will continuously change versioning systems, and Linux will stay at 1-1.5% market share (desktop consumers only). Then in ten years, the doctor will come to earth and save us, delivering linux to the top.
Lolwut? Your post makes no sense to me so I am going to take it as an attempt at humour which I applaud you for yet; son I am dissapoint.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctor_Who

Anikom15 · 2009-11-16 23:44:43

Verisign will still own the internet. Hurd will still be in development. Google will finally release something as a "final" version. Linux will get "trendy" and the real geeks will go play with Plan 9.

Arch Linux

#1 2009-11-05 01:50:55

Desktop Operating System Musings

#2 2009-11-05 03:20:53

Re: Desktop Operating System Musings

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